Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 040033
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Thu Mar 03 2022
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern
California tonight.
...Southern CA...
00z sounding at SAN was strongly capped and stable this evening.
However, large-scale forcing for ascent should result in moistening
profiles as lapse rates cool/steepen ahead of approaching upper
trough. By 09-10z, forecast soundings become buoyant enough for
surface-based convection along/ahead of the cold front. While SBCAPE
may only approach 400 J/kg, surface-6km bulk shear of 35+kt and
steep lapse rates may be enough for gusty winds and small hail with
the strongest storms.
..Darrow.. 03/04/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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