Storm Prediction Center Mar 4, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Mar 4, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Updated: Fri Mar 4 05:36:34 UTC 2022 (

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Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

Categorical Graphic

Day 1 Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Tornado Graphic

20220304 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Day 1 Tornado Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic

20220304 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Day 1 Wind Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

20220304 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic

Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Day 1 Hail Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

   SPC AC 040536

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1136 PM CST Thu Mar 03 2022

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms are possible during the day across portions of
   the southwestern U.S. into western Colorado. Isolated thunderstorms
   are also expected during the overnight hours downstream from
   Nebraska into northern Iowa.

   ...Southwestern US into western CO...

   After early-day convection across coastal southern CA, strong 500mb
   speed max is forecast to translate through the base of the
   southwestern US trough into western NM by late afternoon. Along and
   north of this jet, cooling mid-level temperatures and steep lapse
   rates will contribute to weak buoyancy. This likely will be adequate
   for dry, high-based, and in some cases elevated convection. PWs are
   expected to remain quite dry along a corridor from northern AZ into
   western CO where values may only approach 0.40 inches. While
   convection may struggle to produce appreciable precipitation, gusty
   winds could accompany some of this convection, especially during the
   afternoon when boundary-layer conditions are warmest.

   ...Central Plains to the upper MS Valley...

   During the overnight hours, LLJ will respond to the approaching
   short wave and increase markedly from KS into southeast MN. This
   should aid some moisture return across the Plains resulting in PWs
   increasing to near 0.80 inches within a strong warm-advection
   regime. Forecast soundings exhibit adequate elevated instability if
   lifting a parcel atop the boundary layer, near 850mb. Isolated
   thunderstorms will likely develop from the central Plains to the
   upper MS Valley late in the period. Instability does not appear
   significant enough to warrant severe hail probabilities.

   ..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/04/2022

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