Mar 4, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 4 12:59:40 UTC 2022 (20220304 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220304 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220304 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220304 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220304 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220304 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 041259

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0659 AM CST Fri Mar 04 2022

   Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms are possible today across portions of the
   southwestern U.S. into Colorado. Isolated thunderstorms are also
   expected late tonight from Nebraska into Iowa and southern
   Minnesota.

   ...Southwest States/Four Corners...
   A lead shortwave trough and related speed max over southern
   California this morning will eject northeastward and reach the Four
   Corners area this evening and the central High Plains late tonight.
   Along and north of this jet, cooling mid-level temperatures and
   steep lapse rates will contribute to weak buoyancy. This likely will
   be adequate for isolated semi-dry, high-based convection. While
   convection may struggle to produce appreciable precipitation, gusty
   winds could accompany some of this convection, especially during the
   afternoon across east/southeast Utah into western Colorado. While
   some stronger thunderstorm-related winds could materialize, the
   potential for severe-caliber thunderstorm-related gusts is currently
   expected to remain low.

   ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest...
   Late tonight, in tandem with weak height falls, an increasingly
   strong south-southwesterly low-level jet will develop across the
   central/southern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley.
   Elevated moisture transport will contribute to thermodynamic
   profiles that are increasingly conducive for thunderstorms,
   particularly across eastern Nebraska into Iowa and southern
   Minnesota (mainly 10 pm CST onward). While a few stronger
   thunderstorm updraft cores with hail may materialize late tonight,
   current expectations are for hail magnitudes to remain below severe
   levels given modest elevated buoyancy and an expected flow weakness
   in the lower part (650-800mb) of the cloud-bearing layer.

   ..Guyer/Dean.. 03/04/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z