SPC AC 050059

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0659 PM CST Fri Mar 04 2022

   Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered thunderstorms may develop overnight across parts of the
   middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest.   A couple of these may
   become capable of producing hail, but this is still expected to
   mostly remain below severe limits.

   ...Synopsis...
   Models indicate that there will be further amplification of
   mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific, within the
   northern branch of split westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude
   western Pacific.  As this occurs, a vigorous downstream short wave
   trough, and embedded mid-level low, likely will continue to dig
   southward along the northern through central California coast.  

   A similar preceding perturbation is already in the process of
   accelerating into the Four Corners region, and forecast to continue
   northeastward across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday.  This
   will be accompanied by the development of a strong southwesterly
   mid/upper jet streak across the central and southern Great Plains.

   Surface cyclogenesis is already underway across eastern Colorado,
   with a corridor of 30-40 kt southerly flow around 850 mb focused
   along an axis across the central Great Plains through portions of
   the middle Missouri through upper Mississippi Valley.  Further
   strengthening of this low-level jet is forecast overnight,
   particularly across the southern Great Plains through southern
   portions of the middle Missouri Valley.  In the wake of a number of
   preceding cold intrusions, low-level moisture return off the Gulf is
   still somewhat modest, but underway, albeit mostly below warming and
   capping elevated mixed-layer air.

   ...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest...
   Latest model guidance continues to suggest that scattered
   thunderstorm development overnight is most probable across parts of
   northeastern Iowa into southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
    This is where strongest lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection will
   become focused, and it appears that elevated moisture return will
   become sufficient to contributed to weak destabilization.

   Additional thunderstorm development appears possible southwestward
   along the low-level jet axis, toward the southern Nebraska/Iowa
   Missouri River vicinity, closer to the northeastern periphery of the
   warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, where
   thermodynamic profiles might become more conducive to the production
   of at least small hail.

   ...Great Basin into Colorado Rockies...
   Widely scattered thunderstorm development is ongoing, largely aided
   by daytime heating beneath cold mid-level air associated with the
   evolving larger-scale troughing.  Probabilities for continuing
   thunderstorm development are expected to become increasingly
   negligible across most areas through 02-04Z.

   ...Northern into central California coast...
   Near the cold core of the digging mid-level low, isolated
   thunderstorm development appears possible overnight.

   ..Kerr.. 03/05/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z