Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Des Moines, IA...West Des Moines, IA...Ankeny, IA...Urbandale, IA...Ottumwa, IA...
Kansas City, MO...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Olathe, KS...
SPC AC 051629
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Sat Mar 05 2022
Valid 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight
across the lower Missouri Valley into southern portions of the Great
Lakes region. Damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and large hail
will be likely portions of Iowa and Missouri. Isolated damaging
gusts and hail will also be possible later tonight toward the Great
...Midwest/Lower Missouri Valley to Great Lakes...
A negatively tilted shortwave trough and attendant 70-80 kt H5 jet
streak visible across the central High Plains on morning water vapor
imagery are forecast to rapidly eject northeastward reaching the
upper Midwest/Great Lakes over the next 12-16 hours. Strong dynamic
lift associated with this trough/jet and a 40-50 kt low-level jet
have advected modest (50-55 F) dewpoints across eastern KS, northern
MO and far southern IA. As the trough continues northeastward during
the day, a deepening surface cyclone will continue pulling moisture
northward, toward a slowly advancing warm front stretching from the
low northeastward into central IA.
North of the warm front, a band of elevated convection is ongoing
within the strong warm advection regime at the nose of the low-level
jet. Modest buoyancy aloft may favor some potential for isolated
severe hail trough the morning, before these storms move far enough
north and eastward away from the jet and into more stable
Behind the initial convection, strong dynamic lifting from the
approaching trough and isolated cloud breaks should work to
destabilize the boundary-layer ahead of a fast moving cold
front/dryline near the low across northeastern KS and southeastern
NE. With the modest surface moisture in place, destabilization
should remain mostly weak to moderate, with regional model soundings
showing between 500 and 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing beneath -20 C
500 mb temps by early afternoon. Some uncertainty exists regarding
destabilization in the wake of early-day convection, though clearing
evident across northeastern KS this morning lends some confidence to
at least patchy sunshine through the early afternoon. Strong
convection appears likely to initiate near the triple point in
vicinity to the Missouri River between 19 and 21z, and track
northeastward across south-central IA and northern MO. Wind profiles
near and southeast of the low and the warm front strongly favor
supercells with enhanced low-level curvature (200-250 0-1km SRH)
evident on model hodographs. Aloft, more straight line structure
suggests some potential for left splits and upscale growth resulting
in a mixed storm mode of broken/semi discrete bands of convection.
Fast storm motions and the potential development of small but
moderately strong low-level mesocyclones will support all severe
hazards including a few tornadoes. Steep lapse rates, both low and
in the mid-levels will facilitate efficient transfer of strong winds
aloft to the surface with scattered damaging gusts likely,
especially after the initial cellular development. Some potential
for damaging gusts will also extended farther south along the cold
front across eastern KS and southwestern MO and into the western
Great Lakes later tonight. Displaced from the stronger ascent,
convective organization is less certain, but the strong wind fields
suggests some threat for damaging wind gusts and small hail.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z