New Orleans, LA...Metairie, LA...Marrero, LA...Chalmette, LA...Slidell, LA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
New Orleans, LA...Metairie, LA...Marrero, LA...Chalmette, LA...Slidell, LA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
29,040
2,714,361
New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...Pensacola, FL...
SPC AC 081622
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Tue Mar 08 2022
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may affect parts of southeast
Louisiana, coastal Mississippi/Alabama, and the western Florida
Panhandle after midnight.
...Central Gulf Coast...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong trough rotating across NM
into TX. Increasing low-level warm advection and lift has spread
into east TX/LA, where numerous showers and thunderstorms have
developed. This activity is elevated above a cool/stable
near-surface layer, and is not expected to pose a severe threat
today.
By tonight, a warm front currently analyzed off the coast of MS/AL
will drift northward and onshore. This will allow very moist and at
least marginally unstable air to spread inland. As the primary cold
front approaches after midnight, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to form. 12z model guidance differs on placement and
intensity of activity. Nevertheless, there appears to be a window
of opportunity after midnight for a severe storm or two over the MS
Delta region of southeast LA into the coastal counties of MS/AL and
the western FL Panhandle. Strong low-level shear profiles and cool
temperatures aloft would support all hazards if a supercell or two
can form. Therefore have opted to upgrade a small area to SLGT
risk.
..Hart/Lyons.. 03/08/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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