Mar 14, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 14 05:46:51 UTC 2022 (20220314 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220314 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220314 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 52,444 8,286,012 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
MARGINAL 98,622 11,786,825 Houston, TX...Baton Rouge, LA...Pasadena, TX...Waco, TX...Lafayette, LA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220314 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 14,136 2,394,402 Plano, TX...Garland, TX...Mesquite, TX...Richardson, TX...Tyler, TX...
2 % 47,837 5,537,389 Dallas, TX...Shreveport, LA...Irving, TX...Grand Prairie, TX...Carrollton, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220314 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 30,256 2,079,731 Shreveport, LA...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...Lufkin, TX...
5 % 84,352 16,225,078 Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220314 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 14,078 2,443,877 Plano, TX...Garland, TX...Mesquite, TX...Richardson, TX...Tyler, TX...
15 % 52,287 8,284,629 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
5 % 97,585 11,402,086 Houston, TX...Baton Rouge, LA...Pasadena, TX...Waco, TX...Lafayette, LA...
   SPC AC 140546

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1246 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
   TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND THE ARKLATEX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms may produce large to very large hail, isolated wind
   damage, and a tornado or two across parts of northeastern Texas,
   southeastern Oklahoma, and the ArkLaTex.

   ...Synopsis...
   Modest moisture return is ongoing across portions of the western
   Gulf. The 00Z soundings at CRP and BRO have captured the early
   stages of moist layer development. As a shortwave trough, now near
   the Four Corners on water vapor imagery, continues southeast,
   moisture return will continue through the overnight and through the
   day Monday. Severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of North
   Texas into the ArkLatex vicinity, primarily during late afternoon
   into the evening.

   ...Portions of North and northeastern Texas...
   During the afternoon, a cold front will continue southward. By early
   evening, the boundary is expected to be oriented roughly north-south
   in the vicinity of I-35. With very slow eastward progress of the
   front, linear forcing should not be overly strong initially.
   Effective shear of 35-40 kts across the boundary should favor
   supercell development by 00-01Z. Though moisture will be limited
   (mid to upper 50s F dewpoints), very cold temperatures aloft will
   promote 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Large hail will likely be the primary
   threat. Given initially discrete storms, 2-inch hail will be
   possible within the first couple hours of the convective cycle. Weak
   surface low development and an increase in the low-level jet will
   lead to strong low-level wind profiles, veering with height, that
   will support a tornado or two, also with the initial supercells. The
   cold front will begin to accelerate eastward by mid-evening. This
   should lead to a transition to more linear storm modes and an
   increase in damaging-gust potential.

   ...Southern Louisiana...
   A weak warm front will develop as the surface low continues
   southeastward through the evening. Scattered storms are expected to
   move onshore late in the period. Wind profiles will favor rotating
   storms. A low-end risk for a tornado and isolated wind/hail will
   exist near the shore. Storms moving farther inland will pose a
   lesser threat due to more limited buoyancy and less favorable
   low-level thermodynamic profiles.

   ..Wendt/Gleason.. 03/14/2022

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