Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
121,183
10,549,348
Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Minneapolis, MN...Des Moines, IA...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
152,194
11,071,303
Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Minneapolis, MN...
5 %
176,024
7,488,113
St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Cedar Rapids, IA...Abilene, TX...
SPC AC 231632
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this afternoon
and evening, from the Upper Midwest to Oklahoma. This will include a
risk for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.
...Eastern Dakotas and west-central/northwest Minnesota...
Upper jet exit region/ample diffluence will overspread the region
ahead of the northeastward-moving upper low over the Dakotas. A
relatively narrow warm/moist sector will precede the eastern
Dakotas/northern Minnesota low, which will undergo some additional
deepening before beginning to weaken/fill later tonight.
Pronounced mid-level height falls/DCVA will aid in substantial
mid-level cooling and support a broken arc of low-topped convection
from southeast North Dakota/northeast South Dakota into
west-central/northwest Minnesota beginning around midday or early
afternoon. A few supercells can be expected with a risk for
short-lived tornadoes, large hail, and locally damaging winds.
Updrafts should quickly become elevated after they cross a sharp
surface warm front in northeast North Dakota/northern Minnesota but
may still pose a threat for isolated severe hail.
...Iowa/eastern Kansas into northern/western Missouri...
Although a few semi-discrete supercells could initially occur,
clusters of storms should be prevalent across the region later this
afternoon and evening. This will include the potential for severe
hail, damaging winds, and possibly a couple of tornadoes even with a
mixed/quasi-linear mode of storms.
...Oklahoma/western North Texas/southeast Kansas...
Relatively mild mid-level temperatures /-9 to -12C at 500mb and 11+
C at 700mb/ exist atop the warm sector at these latitudes, which
relates to tempered mid-level lapse rates that exist. Regardless,
the potential for hail-producing supercells will be compensated by
long/semi-straight mid/high-level portions /50+ at 500 mb/ of the
hodograph, with deep-layer shear vectors largely orthogonal to the
initiating boundary favorable for some discrete supercells. There
will also be some increase in low-level moisture (lower 60s F
surface dewpoints), which will contribute to upwards of 1500+ J/kg
MLCAPE by peak heating. At least isolated/widely scattered storms
are expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening in vicinity
of the dryline/Pacific front. Large hail is possible along with the
potential for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds.
...West-central Texas...
At least isolated severe storms may develop late this evening and/or
overnight with the potential for isolated severe hail and locally
damaging winds.
..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/23/2022
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