Apr 23, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 23 16:32:28 UTC 2022 (20220423 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220423 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220423 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 176,207 12,491,250 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Minneapolis, MN...
MARGINAL 154,410 6,156,673 St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Cedar Rapids, IA...Abilene, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220423 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 87,549 6,722,086 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Des Moines, IA...Overland Park, KS...
2 % 106,854 7,202,729 Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...St. Paul, MN...Topeka, KS...Rochester, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220423 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 121,183 10,549,348 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Minneapolis, MN...Des Moines, IA...
5 % 158,657 6,952,637 Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...St. Paul, MN...Cedar Rapids, IA...Abilene, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220423 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 152,194 11,071,303 Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Tulsa, OK...Minneapolis, MN...
5 % 176,024 7,488,113 St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Cedar Rapids, IA...Abilene, TX...
   SPC AC 231632

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1132 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022

   Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
   MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this afternoon
   and evening, from the Upper Midwest to Oklahoma. This will include a
   risk for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.

   ...Eastern Dakotas and west-central/northwest Minnesota...
   Upper jet exit region/ample diffluence will overspread the region
   ahead of the northeastward-moving upper low over the Dakotas. A
   relatively narrow warm/moist sector will precede the eastern
   Dakotas/northern Minnesota low, which will undergo some additional
   deepening before beginning to weaken/fill later tonight.

   Pronounced mid-level height falls/DCVA will aid in substantial
   mid-level cooling and support a broken arc of low-topped convection
   from southeast North Dakota/northeast South Dakota into
   west-central/northwest Minnesota beginning around midday or early
   afternoon. A few supercells can be expected with a risk for
   short-lived tornadoes, large hail, and locally damaging winds.
   Updrafts should quickly become elevated after they cross a sharp
   surface warm front in northeast North Dakota/northern Minnesota but
   may still pose a threat for isolated severe hail. 

   ...Iowa/eastern Kansas into northern/western Missouri...
   Although a few semi-discrete supercells could initially occur,
   clusters of storms should be prevalent across the region later this
   afternoon and evening. This will include the potential for severe
   hail, damaging winds, and possibly a couple of tornadoes even with a
   mixed/quasi-linear mode of storms.

   ...Oklahoma/western North Texas/southeast Kansas...
   Relatively mild mid-level temperatures /-9 to -12C at 500mb and 11+
   C at 700mb/ exist atop the warm sector at these latitudes, which
   relates to tempered mid-level lapse rates that exist. Regardless,
   the potential for hail-producing supercells will be compensated by
   long/semi-straight mid/high-level portions /50+ at 500 mb/ of the
   hodograph, with deep-layer shear vectors largely orthogonal to the
   initiating boundary favorable for some discrete supercells. There
   will also be some increase in low-level moisture (lower 60s F
   surface dewpoints), which will contribute to upwards of 1500+ J/kg
   MLCAPE by peak heating. At least isolated/widely scattered storms
   are expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening in vicinity
   of the dryline/Pacific front. Large hail is possible along with the
   potential for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds.

   ...West-central Texas...
   At least isolated severe storms may develop late this evening and/or
   overnight with the potential for isolated severe hail and locally
   damaging winds.

   ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/23/2022

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