Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 281957
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the
central states arcing into the northeast Great Basin this afternoon
through tonight. Within this broader regime, greatest confidence for
severe hail exists across the Nebraska Panhandle during the late
evening to early overnight.
No change was made to the previous convective outlook.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022/
A broad upper ridge is present today over much of the Plains and
Midwest states, with several small/weak shortwave troughs traversing
the ridge from WY/CO into KS/OK/TX. None of these features are
likely to result in organized severe storm activity, but several
areas may see isolated intense convection later today and tonight.
...Northeast OK/southeast KS...
In the wake of morning convection, a surface outflow boundary
currently extends across central/eastern OK. Southerly low-level
winds over this boundary will likely result in re-development of a
few thunderstorms this afternoon over parts of northeast OK and
southeast KS. Isolated severe storms are possible with hail and
gusty winds possible.
A relatively strong surface dryline is expected to develop this
afternoon from the eastern TX Panhandle southward to the Davis
Mountains. Model guidance varies significantly on the odds of
initiation along the dryline this afternoon, but a few 12z CAMS do
show strong cells affecting the area between 22-03z. Large hail and
damaging winds will be possible with any storms that can form.
...Southeast ID into southern WY...
A stronger shortwave trough is forecast to move across UT and affect
parts of ID/UT this afternoon. Scattered mostly high-based
thunderstorms are forecast to develop across this region after 20z,
with the stronger cells capable of gusty winds and some hail.
Limited low-level moisture will suppress a more significant severe
Tonight, forcing from the aforementioned shortwave trough will begin
to impinge on the western edge of greater low-level moisture over
the NE Panhandle. This will likely lead to intensifying
thunderstorms (mainly after 05z) spreading across the SLGT risk
area. This scenario is a little more confident than the others, so
will maintain the SLGT risk category. Hail and wind are possible as
the line of storms moves toward central NE overnight.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z