May 10, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 10 05:48:55 UTC 2022 (20220510 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220510 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220510 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 112,311 4,583,921 Madison, WI...Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Green Bay, WI...Midland, TX...
MARGINAL 98,777 7,357,112 Milwaukee, WI...Amarillo, TX...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...Wichita Falls, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220510 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 13,668 1,304,410 Green Bay, WI...Appleton, WI...Oshkosh, WI...Fond du Lac, WI...Wausau, WI...
2 % 48,888 4,533,543 Milwaukee, WI...Madison, WI...Midland, TX...Kenosha, WI...Waukegan, IL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220510 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 111,977 4,524,253 Madison, WI...Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Green Bay, WI...Midland, TX...
5 % 98,371 7,399,527 Milwaukee, WI...Amarillo, TX...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...Wichita Falls, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220510 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 31,828 482,498 Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Hobbs, NM...Big Spring, TX...West Odessa, TX...
15 % 112,203 4,536,695 Madison, WI...Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Green Bay, WI...Midland, TX...
5 % 98,792 6,808,617 Milwaukee, WI...Amarillo, TX...Rockford, IL...Wichita Falls, TX...Elgin, IL...
   SPC AC 100548

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1248 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   WISCONSIN AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across portions
   of the southern High Plains late in the day Tuesday, accompanied by
   a hail/wind risk.  A couple of severe storms bringing all-hazards
   potential are expected across the central/eastern Wisconsin area
   during the afternoon and early evening.

   ...Wisconsin Area...

   Upper ridging is forecast to build north across the mid MS
   Valley/Midwest region Tuesday as one dominant upper low digs into
   the southwestern US and another holds off the southeast coast.
   Although heights will build across WI, modest southwesterly
   mid-level flow will be maintained into central portions of the state
   where 500mb flow should be on the order of 30-40kt. 

   Early this morning, a broken line of convection has propagated into
   central WI-northeast IA, with more isolated activity trailing into
   southwest IA. Remnants of this activity will propagate southeast by
   daybreak and likely weaken by the start of the period. Latest model
   guidance suggest a weak surface wave may evolve along the boundary
   over IA then drift into central WI during the afternoon. While
   low-level convergence is not expected to be that strong, weak LLJ
   will extend across eastern IA into southern WI. Low-level warm
   advection and some boundary-layer heating should contribute to
   renewed thunderstorm development within the warm advection zone
   immediately ahead of the surface wave. Forecast soundings suggest
   ample deep-layer flow for sustained updrafts, and isolated
   supercells should ultimately evolve during the afternoon across this
   region. Initially convection may develop atop cooler boundary layer,
   then within the warm sector where low-level moisture/buoyancy should
   prove more favorable for the possibility for a couple of tornadoes.
   Otherwise, large hail and damaging winds are expected with the
   strongest activity.

   ...Southern High Plains...

   Strengthening mid-level anticyclone over the MS Valley is
   contributing to a significant westward push to deeper moisture
   across TX into the southern High Plains early this morning. Dryline
   has retreated to western OK, northwest TX, to near FST at 05z and
   this demarcation will likely move into extreme southeast NM where it
   will serve as the focus for convection by late afternoon. Latest
   HREF model guidance is fairly aggressive in developing convection
   across the southern High Plains as temperatures rise through the
   90s, and the lowest 3km lapse rates steepen into the 8.5-9 C/km
   range. Early-morning water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave
   trough over northern Mexico. This feature is lifting northeast and
   will likely contribute to large-scale support for convection by
   afternoon. While stronger 500mb flow should hold across the southern
   Rockies, modest deep-layer flow/shear will exist for organized
   multi-cell clusters and supercells. With modest LLJ across the
   southern High Plains, it appears scattered strong/severe
   thunderstorms will propagate east during the evening, and this is
   supported by latest HREF guidance. Large hail and damaging winds are
   expected with this activity.

   ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 05/10/2022

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