May 10, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 10 16:35:10 UTC 2022 (20220510 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220510 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220510 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 30,194 544,048 Lubbock, TX...Big Spring, TX...Plainview, TX...Altus, OK...Sweetwater, TX...
SLIGHT 115,370 6,637,987 Milwaukee, WI...Madison, WI...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...
MARGINAL 142,176 18,745,105 Chicago, IL...Fort Wayne, IN...Grand Rapids, MI...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220510 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 25,263 2,730,174 Madison, WI...Green Bay, WI...Appleton, WI...Oshkosh, WI...Fond du Lac, WI...
2 % 29,594 2,787,429 Milwaukee, WI...Rockford, IL...Waukesha, WI...Janesville, WI...West Allis, WI...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220510 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 30,664 679,116 Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Big Spring, TX...Plainview, TX...
30 % 30,136 543,712 Lubbock, TX...Big Spring, TX...Plainview, TX...Altus, OK...Sweetwater, TX...
15 % 108,761 6,368,956 Milwaukee, WI...Madison, WI...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...
5 % 140,555 18,753,282 Chicago, IL...Fort Wayne, IN...Grand Rapids, MI...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220510 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 58,033 2,839,877 Green Bay, WI...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Appleton, WI...Oshkosh, WI...
15 % 122,967 6,606,177 Milwaukee, WI...Madison, WI...Lubbock, TX...Green Bay, WI...Midland, TX...
5 % 88,737 9,919,103 Chicago, IL...Amarillo, TX...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...Naperville, IL...
   SPC AC 101635

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1135 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022

   Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
   OF NORTHWEST TX INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OK...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI AND FAR SOUTHERN UPPER MI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorm winds will be a hazard over parts of the
   southern High Plains today into this evening, along with isolated
   hail.  Very large hail, isolated severe gusts and a tornado threat
   will develop this afternoon over parts of Wisconsin and vicinity.

   ...Synopsis...
   Expansive upper ridging is currently in place from the western Gulf
   of Mexico into southern Quebec, while upper troughing extends from
   Alberta southwestward into central CA. The upper ridging is forecast
   to build westward/northwestward into more of the southern/central
   Plains and Upper MS Valley today, while an upper low embedded within
   the western CONUS troughing moves from central CA into the Great
   Basin. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will persist between
   these two features, helping to advect a strong elevated mixed layer
   over a large part of the Plains and MS Valley. 

   Current surface analysis places a low over northeast KS, with a
   stationary boundary extending northeastward across central IA to
   another weak low in central WI. A cold front also extends
   southwestward from this low across southwest KS and into the western
   OK Panhandle before arcing back northwestward into central CO. A
   dryline is also apparent, extending from the northeast KS low
   southwestward into southeast NM before transitioning more southward
   across Far West TX. The stationary boundary in WI and dryline in TX
   will both be areas of focus for severe thunderstorms today. 

   ...Southern High Plains...
   A very moist air mass is already in place across the region east of
   the dryline, with dewpoints ranging from mid 60s near LBB to the
   upper 60s at MAF and FST. Strong heating is anticipated today across
   this air mass, with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s,
   contributing to very strong buoyancy and limited convective
   inhibition. A weak shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery
   moving out of northern Mexico is expected to interact with this
   unstable and uncapped air mass, providing the impetus for numerous
   thunderstorms.

   Initial development is expected across West TX/Pecos River vicinity,
   where a few storms may be strong enough to produce very large hail.
   Weak deep-layer vertical shear, abundant low-level moisture, and
   steep low-level lapse rates will promote outflow dominant storm
   structures. Upscale growth into one or more convective lines appears
   likely as cold pool amalgamate, with the resulting lines propagating
   northeastward. Severe wind gusts with, some downdrafts potentially
   reaching 65-kt significant criteria, should accompany this activity.

   ...WI and vicinity...
   Mid 60s dewpoints are already in place across much of central and
   southern WI, in the vicinity of the stationary front mentioned in
   synopsis. Some further increase in low-level moisture is anticipated
   throughout the day, with strong diurnal heating also expected. Very
   strong buoyancy will be in place this afternoon in the vicinity of
   the stationary boundary and weak surface low forecast to move along
   the front during the afternoon.

   Surface convergence in proximity to this low and stationary boundary
   will be the main stimulant for thunderstorm development today, with
   large-scale ascent absent amid background height rises. Even so, at
   least scattered thunderstorm coverage appears likely, amid an
   environment supportive of supercells. All severe hazards would be
   possible with these supercells, including very large hail and a
   tornado or two.

   Uncertainty remains as to the potential for upscale growth of
   convection across the region, and the potential for any such
   activity to coalesce cold pools enough to transition to a
   forward-propagating complex. Low wind probabilities were extended
   eastward/southeastward across Lake Michigan into western Lower MI
   and/or northern IL to account for this potential.

   ..Mosier/Weinman.. 05/10/2022

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