May 14, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 14 05:59:09 UTC 2022 (20220514 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220514 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220514 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 398,526 35,840,132 Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Nashville, TN...Omaha, NE...Toledo, OH...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220514 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220514 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 376,924 34,035,653 Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Nashville, TN...Toledo, OH...Cincinnati, OH...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220514 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 397,924 35,821,251 Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Nashville, TN...Omaha, NE...Toledo, OH...
   SPC AC 140559

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
   GREAT LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
   the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes regions,
   mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and damaging wind
   gusts will be the primary threats. Some threat may redevelop late
   tonight across parts of Nebraska and Kansas.

   ...Synopsis...
   Multiple midlevel shortwave troughs will move eastward from the
   northern/central Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes through
   the period, while a mid/upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS
   continues to weaken and begins to drift eastward. At the surface, a
   cold front will move through the central/northern Plains and upper
   Great Lakes, while a weaker front becomes increasingly ill-defined
   from the southern Plains into the mid-MS Valley.  

   With the main synoptic features displaced to the north of the more
   favorable low-level moisture and instability, the organized severe
   thunderstorm threat may remain seasonably limited, but pockets of
   stronger storms will be possible across portions of the Great
   Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes regions. 

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Isolated thunderstorm development is possible across parts of west
   TX/OK this afternoon, along/east of a weak surface trough/dryline.
   Flow fields will generally be weak across the region, but modest
   northwesterly flow aloft may favor some brief storm organization.
   Moderate to locally strong instability will support an isolated hail
   threat, while inverted-v profiles and large DCAPE will support a
   threat of localized downbursts. 

   ...Central Plains...
   Widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along the
   cold front this afternoon across the central Plains into portions of
   the Midwest. There is some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of
   low-level moisture and buoyancy ahead of the front, but steep
   low/midlevel lapse rates and modest deep-layer shear will support a
   localized hail/wind threat with the strongest storms. 

   Renewed thunderstorm development is possible overnight across parts
   of southern NE and northern KS, as a strong midlevel shortwave
   trough begins to approach the area from the northwest. Elevated
   buoyancy and deep-layer shear may become sufficient for some storm
   organization, with a risk of hail and locally gusty winds. 

   ...Lower MS Valley into the Great Lakes...
   Similar to Friday, a broad region from the lower MS Valley into
   portions of the Great Lakes will be in a regime characterized by
   moderate buoyancy, relatively cool midlevel temperatures, and weak
   north to northwesterly flow aloft. A few weakly organized
   cells/clusters will be possible within this regime, potentially
   posing a risk of localized hail and damaging wind gusts.

   ..Dean/Bentley.. 05/14/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z