Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 140559
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes regions,
mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and damaging wind
gusts will be the primary threats. Some threat may redevelop late
tonight across parts of Nebraska and Kansas.
Multiple midlevel shortwave troughs will move eastward from the
northern/central Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes through
the period, while a mid/upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS
continues to weaken and begins to drift eastward. At the surface, a
cold front will move through the central/northern Plains and upper
Great Lakes, while a weaker front becomes increasingly ill-defined
from the southern Plains into the mid-MS Valley.
With the main synoptic features displaced to the north of the more
favorable low-level moisture and instability, the organized severe
thunderstorm threat may remain seasonably limited, but pockets of
stronger storms will be possible across portions of the Great
Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes regions.
...Southern High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorm development is possible across parts of west
TX/OK this afternoon, along/east of a weak surface trough/dryline.
Flow fields will generally be weak across the region, but modest
northwesterly flow aloft may favor some brief storm organization.
Moderate to locally strong instability will support an isolated hail
threat, while inverted-v profiles and large DCAPE will support a
threat of localized downbursts.
Widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along the
cold front this afternoon across the central Plains into portions of
the Midwest. There is some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of
low-level moisture and buoyancy ahead of the front, but steep
low/midlevel lapse rates and modest deep-layer shear will support a
localized hail/wind threat with the strongest storms.
Renewed thunderstorm development is possible overnight across parts
of southern NE and northern KS, as a strong midlevel shortwave
trough begins to approach the area from the northwest. Elevated
buoyancy and deep-layer shear may become sufficient for some storm
organization, with a risk of hail and locally gusty winds.
...Lower MS Valley into the Great Lakes...
Similar to Friday, a broad region from the lower MS Valley into
portions of the Great Lakes will be in a regime characterized by
moderate buoyancy, relatively cool midlevel temperatures, and weak
north to northwesterly flow aloft. A few weakly organized
cells/clusters will be possible within this regime, potentially
posing a risk of localized hail and damaging wind gusts.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z