SPC AC 230547

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1247 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST NM
   AND WEST TX INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon into Monday
   night across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail, severe
   wind gusts, and a tornado or two possible. Storms capable of
   isolated damaging wind and a tornado or two are possible across
   parts of the Southeast.

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad upper troughing currently in place across the CONUS is
   expected throughout the day today as a pair of embedded shortwave
   troughs move into the Plains. The lead shortwave is forecast to move
   into the central Plains late this afternoon, while the shortwave
   following quickly in its wake moves into the southern High Plains
   this evening. Lee troughing will deepen across the central and
   southern High Plains ahead of this second shortwave trough, with the
   resulting increase in the surface pressure gradient supporting
   moisture return throughout the day. Instability associated with the
   returning low-level moisture coupled with ascent ahead of the
   approaching shortwave and convergence along the dryline are expected
   to result in numerous thunderstorms this afternoon.  

   Farther east, a convectively augmented shortwave trough and
   associated surface low are currently moving over the central Gulf
   Coast. This system is expected to continue moving gradually
   northeastward throughout the day, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by early
   Tuesday morning. 

   ...Southern High Plains...
   A significant gradient in moisture exists across the southern Plains
   currently, particularly for this time of year. Dewpoints along the
   TX Gulf Coast are in the upper 60s/low 70s while dewpoints in the TX
   Panhandle are in the upper 20s/low 30s. Even so, strong moisture
   return is anticipated throughout the day, with upper 50s dewpoints
   in place across the TX Panhandle by tomorrow afternoon. This
   increasing low-level moisture should led to increased buoyancy ahead
   of the shortwave mentioned in synopsis. Ascent attendant to the
   shortwave coupled with low-level convergence along the dryline
   should result in the development of numerous thunderstorms. Vertical
   shear will be modest, but a few more organized updrafts are
   possible. Hail will be the primary severe risk early, with a
   transition to wind damage as the storms become more outflow
   dominant.

   Additional thunderstorm development is also possible farther south
   into the Trans-Pecos region associated with a weak shortwave trough
   moving out of northeastern Mexico. Like the area farther north,
   vertical shear will be modest, likely limiting the number of
   organized storms. Even so, a few organized storms capable of hail
   and/or damaging winds are possible.

   A strong low-level jet is forecast to across west TX tonight, and
   there is some potential for upscale growth of the afternoon
   thunderstorm activity into one or more convective lines. Recent
   guidance indicates this is most likely across the Edwards Plateau,
   with the resulting line then moving into the TX Hill Country.  

   ...Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic...
   Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the shortwave trough moving
   through the region. Destabilization ahead of the shortwave will be
   limited by cloudiness, but temperatures are still expected to reach
   into the low to mid 80s. These temperatures, coupled with dewpoints
   in the upper 60s to low 70s, will support moderate buoyancy, despite
   poor mid-level lapse rates. Slightly enhanced low- to mid-level flow
   is expected throughout the eastern periphery of the trough,
   contributing to strong low-level shear. This combination of buoyancy
   and shear could result in a few stronger storms with the
   thunderstorms ahead of the shortwave. Primary threat is damaging
   downburst winds, but a brief tornado or two is also possible,
   particularly over GA and SC during the early afternoon when the low-
   to mid-level flow will be strongest.

   ..Mosier/Moore.. 05/23/2022

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