SPC AC 230547

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1247 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
   of the central Great Plains this afternoon and evening.  Large hail
   and severe gusts will be the primary threats with the stronger
   storms.

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper troughing will reside over the northwestern and northeastern
   portions of the country today, while ridging continues to dominate
   across a large portion of the remainder of the country.

   At the surface, a cold front is forecast to shift eastward across
   the northwestern quarter of the country.  Meanwhile, a weak front
   will arc from the southeastern U.S. westward across the central Gulf
   Coast region, and then northwestward into the central Plains.

   ...Central Plains...
   Scattered to isolated thunderstorm redevelopment is forecast across
   the central Plains this afternoon, as diurnal
   heating/destabilization occur in the vicinity of a remnant/weak warm
   front shifting northward across the area.  Aided by a belt of
   moderate (around 30 kt) mid-level flow associated with a weak vort
   max progged to shift across the area during the afternoon, a few
   stronger storms will likely evolve.  As such, risk for hail and a
   few strong/damaging gusts is apparent, with risk forecast to
   gradually wane after sunset.

   ...North-central states...
   As a series of subtle mid-level cyclonic disturbances cross the
   northern plains, within a belt of moderate westerlies on the north
   side of the prevailing upper ridge, isolated to scattered/primarily
   diurnal convection is expected across the north-central CONUS.  In
   conjunction with moderate destabilization, flow aloft will likely
   prove sufficient to allow a couple of stronger storms to evolve,
   accompanied by locally strong/gusty winds during the afternoon and
   evening hours.

   ...Central Montana...
   Weak afternoon destabilization is forecast ahead of a cold front
   forecast to shift across central Montana during the afternoon,
   modulated by scant (40s dewpoints) low-level moisture.  Still,
   isolated high-based storms are expected to develop during the
   afternoon, as mid-level height falls spread across the region ahead
   of the slowly advancing short-wave trough.  

   Given potential for sub-cloud evaporation, and enhanced mid-level
   flow promoting rather fast-moving storms, a few stronger wind gusts
   are expected during the afternoon and early evening time frame.

   ...Great Basin...
   An upper low initially over California will gradually devolve into
   an open wave, as it shifts into Nevada through the day.  As an
   associated zone of subtle cooling aloft spreads eastward across
   Nevada/Utah, atop a diurnally heating boundary layer,
   weak/high-based instability  will evolve, fostering development of
   showers and thunderstorms across the area.  Given the deep mixed
   layer, a few evaporatively aided stronger gusts can be expected
   during the afternoon and early evening hours.

   ..Goss/Wendt.. 06/23/2022

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