Aug 4, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 4 05:51:22 UTC 2022 (20220804 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220804 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220804 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 282,325 35,437,640 Columbus, OH...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...Cleveland, OH...Pittsburgh, PA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220804 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220804 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 281,886 35,195,064 Columbus, OH...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220804 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 040551

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1251 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
   VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Locally damaging winds are possible across much of the Northeast,
   Ohio Valley, the southern Plains, and parts of Montana.

   ...Discussion...

   While much of the CONUS will experience neutral to weak height rises
   tomorrow, strong surface heating will once again result in scattered
   thunderstorm development for many regions. In the more favorable
   areas the most robust storms may produce locally gusty winds. Much
   of this activity will focus during the mid-late afternoon and
   evening hours.

   ...Ohio Valley to New England...

   Southern influence of a weak short-wave trough will eject northeast
   across the OH Valley toward northern New England later Today. Early
   this morning, a fairly significant amount of convection has
   developed ahead of this feature from central MO across IL into
   western IN. By the start of the period a weak MCV may evolve from
   this activity then drift east across southern IN. The primary
   concern for strong surface heating will be immediately downstream of
   this feature, across the OH Valley into portions of northern New
   England. While large-scale forcing for ascent will not be
   appreciable, strong heating will prove instrumental in
   destabilization and steep low-level lapse rates will prove favorable
   for locally gusty winds with the most robust thunderstorm activity.

   ...Southern Plains...

   Upper anticyclone is expected to remain anchored over the southern
   High Plains in the vicinity of northeast NM/TX Panhandle. Mid-level
   flow is forecast to become more northeasterly across OK later today
   and this should allow an early-day convective complex over eastern
   KS/MO to sag south which should encourage a weak surface boundary to
   advance into the southern Plains. By 20z convective temperatures
   should be breached as readings rise above 100F across central OK.
   Latest model guidance suggests PW values will approach 2 inches, and
   with 40F surface temp/dew point spreads thermodynamic profiles favor
   gusty downdrafts. If thunderstorms initiate along the aforementioned
   boundary gusty downdrafts seem plausible as convection propagates
   slowly west.

   ...MT...

   The only substantial short-wave trough expected across the CONUS
   today will eject across the Pacific Northwest and flatten the upper
   ridge over MT late in the period. This feature will force a notable
   surface front across ID into western MT by 18z and this boundary
   will surge into eastern MT by 05/00z. While the air mass is not
   particularly moist across this region at this time, scattered
   high-based convection is expected to develop ahead of the front.
   Very steep lapse rates and strengthening flow aloft suggest locally
   strong winds may accompany this scattered weak convection as it
   spreads east during and shortly after peak heating.

   ..Darrow/Jirak.. 08/04/2022

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