New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Boston, MA...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
83,990
37,429,332
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Boston, MA...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
20,434
248,951
Bend, OR...Redmond, OR...
SPC AC 091648
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Tue Aug 09 2022
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND IN PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST....
CORRECTED FOR HAIL GRAPHIC ERROR
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts will be possible
today from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, and in parts
of the Interior Pacific Northwest.
...Northeast States...
A surface cold front is analyzed this morning from central New
England into central PA. This front will sag southeastward today
into a hot/moist low-level environment with temperatures in the 90s
and dewpoints in the 70s. Forecast soundings show weak mid-level
lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft, which should be negative
factors for convective coverage and intensity. Nevertheless, at
least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form on the front later
today, with the strongest cells posing a risk of locally damaging
wind gusts.
...Central OR...
A large upper low is present off the coast of northern CA today,
with rather strong southerly deep-layer flow extending northward
across much of western and central OR. 12z model guidance continues
to show multiple waves of convection affecting the MRGL risk area
through this evening, where sufficient CAPE and deep-layer shear
will be present for a few organized storms. The main threat appears
to be locally damaging wind gusts in pockets of stronger heating,
but an isolated supercell or two cannot be ruled out, with an
associated risk of gusty winds or hail.
..Hart/Weinman.. 08/09/2022
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