Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Toms River, NJ...Allentown, PA...Edison, NJ...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
55,480
14,337,409
Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Toms River, NJ...Allentown, PA...Edison, NJ...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
19,880
211,504
Bend, OR...Redmond, OR...
SPC AC 100047
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Tue Aug 09 2022
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe wind gusts, will be
possible from parts of the Mid Atlantic northeastward into southern
New England. Storms with hail and strong winds will also be possible
in parts of the Pacific Northwest.
...Mid Atlantic...
Latest surface analysis has a cold front located from southeast
Pennsylvania into southern New England. Southeast of the front,
surface dewpoints are in the low to mid 70s F. This is contributing
to moderate instability (MLCAPE 2000 to 2500 J/kg), which is
analyzed by the RAP from eastern North Carolina into Maryland.
Isolated storms are ongoing along the northern edge of this
corridor. As the storms move eastward into the moderate instability,
a marginally severe wind gust will be possible, mainly over the next
hour or two.
...Pacific Northwest...
An upper-level low will continue to approach the West Coast this
evening. Along the eastern edge of the system, large-scale ascent is
supporting scattered thunderstorm development across parts of
southern and central Oregon. This is occurring along and near a
southeast-to-northwest axis of instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE
in the 500 to 1000 J/kg. In addition, the RAP has 0-6 km shear in
the 40 to 50 knot range across much of the Pacific Northwest, with
700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This should be enough for
marginally severe wind gusts and hail this evening.
..Broyles.. 08/10/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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