SPC AC 280055

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0755 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022

   Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
   IOWA...WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA; SOUTHEAST
   MONTANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms will remain possible this evening from
   Iowa northward into parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin, and in
   southeast Montana.

   ...Synopsis...
   Early evening water-vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude mid-level
   trough moving east across the central Great Plains and in parts of
   the Upper Midwest.  Farther west, a more pronounced trough is
   evident on satellite imagery over western MT and it is forecast to
   reach the MT/Dakotas border by daybreak.

   Several thunderstorm clusters are ongoing early this evening from
   the TX Panhandle northeastward into the Upper Midwest.  Low-level
   warm air advection will likely promote additional
   showers/thunderstorms developing this evening within the warm
   conveyor over the IA/MN/WI vicinity.  In the near term (through 03
   UTC), the risk for an isolated severe storm may continue mainly
   across parts of IA into WI and southern MN in areas yet to be
   convectively overturned.  Adequate shear on the KARX VAD will
   support storm organization.  The primary risk with the stronger
   storms will be strong to locally severe gusts.  Maintained a
   confined corridor of low tornado probabilities for lingering
   supercell potential in the proximity to the warm front.

   Farther west over southeast MT, a relatively low PW environment for
   thunderstorms will favor strong outflow with larger thunderstorm
   cores.  The risk for localized severe gusts associated with this
   activity will probably linger into the mid-late evening due to
   strengthening flow fields and steep mid-level lapse rates.

   ..Smith.. 08/28/2022

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