Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 110529
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low Sunday.
...Discussion...
Northern stream short-wave trough is forecast to dig southeast with
an upper low settling into northern IL during the latter half of the
period. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature will likely
contribute to scattered convection across the Midwest/OH Valley
region; however, forecast lapse rates/buoyancy do not appear
adequate enough to warrant more than gusty winds with the most
robust storms ahead of the advancing cold front.
As the upper low digs into northern IL later Sunday, lower MS Valley
short-wave trough will lose amplitude and weaken as it begins to
eject northeast late in the period. This flow regime continues to
favor seasonally high PW corridor from the eastern Gulf of Mexico
into the Middle Atlantic. Scattered convection will readily develop
ahead of this feature from the eastern Gulf Basin into southeast VA.
While a few storms may exhibit loose organization at times, poor
lapse rates/buoyancy do not favor a meaningful threat for severe.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across much of the
southwestern US later today as favorable southerly flow persists
through a deep layer across the Baja Peninsula into AZ. Ample
moisture and modest lapse rates suggest a few robust storms may
evolve during the late afternoon/evening. However, current thinking
is gusty winds should remain isolated and mostly sub-severe.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 09/11/2022
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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