Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 120046
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential should remain low through tonight.
...01z Update...
Upper low is settling southeast into northern IL early this evening
as large-scale trough now extends across the MS Valley. Within the
base of this trough, a low-amplitude short-wave trough is beginning
to shift east across the central Gulf Coast. Seasonally high PW
values continue from the eastern Gulf Basin into the Middle Atlantic
where values are in excess of 2 inches, and profiles are moist and
adequately buoyant for a continued threat of at least isolated
convection tonight.
Farther west, with upper low off the northern Baja Peninsula, deep
southerly flow persists across northwestern Mexico into the lower CO
River Valley. This flow regime is maintaining an anomalously high
moisture plume into CA/southern NV where isolated lightning persists
with scattered convection over this region. Some thunder threat will
continue across much of the southwestern US tonight.
..Darrow.. 09/12/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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