Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
77,811
52,106,805
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Washington, DC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
58,496
41,993,522
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Newark, NJ...
SPC AC 251257
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms producing damaging winds and severe hail are
expected across portions of the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States
this afternoon through evening.
...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic into southern New England...
Within an increasingly amplified large-scale flow regime, an
embedded shortwave trough will continue generally eastward over the
Great Lakes while the cyclonically curved polar jet strengthens and
overspreads the Mid-Atlantic States/southern New England through
tonight. At the surface, low pressure will slowly deepen from the
Lower Great Lakes toward northern New England, with a front trailing
southwestward across Pennsylvania, West Virginia into eastern
Kentucky and Middle Tennessee by late afternoon. Meanwhile, a
preceding warm front will develop northward toward southern New
England, resulting in destabilization by early evening. Dewpoints
will rise into the lower 60s F there, with upper 50s to lower 60s F
southwestward along the front where heating and mixing will be
stronger.
Even with semi-prevalent cloud cover early today, the warm sector
will destabilize and become weakly capped by 18z-21z, initially in
vicinity of the Appalachians spine, and subsequently into additional
parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva and eventually southern New
England by late afternoon and early evening. MLCAPE to upwards of
1000 J/kg will be common, with locally higher values. Deep-layer
shear will be strong beneath the strengthening mid/upper jet, with
values around 60 kt common from eastern Tennessee to the Delmarva,
which will be favorable for organized and moderately fast
east/northeastward-moving storms. Damaging winds are the most
probable hazard regionally, but some severe hail may occur as well.
Later in the evening, additional storms may interact with the warm
front where low-level shear will be stronger, and a brief/weak
tornado could occur, depending on whether surface temperatures are
warm enough for surface-based parcels.
Farther south/southwest, more isolated strong storms may produce
localized severe weather in vicinity of the southern Appalachians,
and possibly even across the Tennessee Valley, although ongoing
pre-frontal storms may curb diurnal destabilization somewhat.
...Wisconsin...
Thunderstorm wind-related low severe probabilities have been
introduced for the region. In association with a clipper-type
shortwave trough, low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon in the presence of limited boundary layer moisture
and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates. Weak but adequate
instability could allow for some stronger storms capable of gusty
winds, potentially including the possibility of localized wind
damage until around sunset.
..Guyer/Gleason.. 09/25/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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