Orlando, FL...Clearwater, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Largo, FL...Palm Harbor, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 271231
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022
Valid 271300Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes are possible in vicinity of the Florida Keys and across
the southern into central Florida Peninsula through tonight in
association with Hurricane Ian.
...Florida Keys and southern/central Florida Peninsula...
Hurricane Ian is expected to move north-northeastward off the
northern coast of western Cuba later this morning and approach the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. Reference the
National Hurricane Center for the latest track/intensity forecast
details.
Multiple bands of convection that are approaching the Keys are
already evident this morning on the east/northeast periphery of Ian.
In its northeast quadrant, regional WSR-88D VAD Wind Profile data
from Key West has sampled a steady increase in low-level shear/SRH
through the early morning hours, with more modest but increasing
shear/SRH also noted per Miami VWP data. Plentiful moisture
(mid/upper 70s F surface dewpoints) and some cloud breaks along with
the diurnal cycle should provide a boost to parcel accelerations and
updraft intensity, particularly from late morning into afternoon,
initially across the Keys vicinity and far southern Peninsula. As
this occurs, a further strengthening of low-level shear and
elongating low-level hodographs will increasingly support the
potential for embedded supercells in association with multiple bands
of semi-discrete convection. Related tornado potential is expected
to diurnally increase and otherwise gradually expand northward today
across the southern Peninsula, and into parts of the central
Peninsula tonight.
..Guyer/Gleason.. 09/27/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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