Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 280049
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes are possible across southern and central Florida overnight
tonight with the outer rain bands of Hurricane Ian.
...Florida Peninsula...
The latest National Hurricane Center Advisory as of 00 UTC placed
the center of Major Hurricane Ian near 24.4N 83.0W, or 180 miles
south of Punta Gorda, Florida. Several outer rain bands have been
observed moving across mostly southern portions of the Florida
peninsula this afternoon/evening. Within these spiral bands,
semi-discrete supercells with persistent low-level rotation have
been observed. As Ian continues north this evening, ongoing
supercells should spread north and west into portions of the central
peninsula. Forecasted decreases in central pressure (947 mb as of 00
UTC) and expansion of Ian's wind field inland should support backing
and enhancement of the low-level easterlies along and south of
Interstate 4 and the central peninsula overnight. Area model
soundings show sustained and large low-level hodographs with ESRH of
250-500 m2/s2 favorable for tornadoes and occasional strong wind
gusts. While buoyancy will likely remain weaker owing to the lack of
diurnal heating, the advection of upper 70s F surface dewpoints and
higher theta-E inland may compensate enough to keep updrafts buoyant
overnight.
The greatest risk for tornadoes will likely remain with the primary
outer bands of Ian across portions of the southeastern and central
Florida Peninsula. IR satellite imagery and recent Hi-res HRRR data
suggest additional offshore development is possible across portions
of the Florida Straits and west of the Bahamas tonight. Should these
bands continue to develop and move inland across southeastern and
eventually central Florida, embedded supercells will remain capable
of tornadoes and isolated strong wind gusts through the overnight
hours.
..Lyons/Darrow.. 09/28/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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