Sep 28, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 28 12:53:55 UTC 2022 (20220928 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220928 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220928 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 5,925 2,904,722 Orlando, FL...Deltona, FL...Daytona Beach, FL...Kissimmee, FL...Port Orange, FL...
SLIGHT 27,992 11,758,842 Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...
MARGINAL 6,949 1,011,109 Clearwater, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Largo, FL...Palm Harbor, FL...Ocala, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220928 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
10 % 5,985 2,917,057 Orlando, FL...Deltona, FL...Daytona Beach, FL...Kissimmee, FL...Port Orange, FL...
5 % 28,014 11,756,778 Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...
2 % 6,878 1,033,060 Spring Hill, FL...Miami Beach, FL...Ocala, FL...Palm Valley, FL...Key West, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220928 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 40,888 15,706,898 Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Orlando, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220928 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 281253

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0753 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

   Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Tornadoes are expected across the central and southern Florida
   Peninsula today in association with Hurricane Ian.

   ...Florida...
   Major Hurricane Ian will continue to move slowly northeastward and
   approach the southwest/west-central coast of Florida today.
   Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest track,
   intensity, and forecast details.

   A north-northeastward translation of Ian-related eastern-peripheral
   winds will continue to occur across the southern/central Peninsula,
   with appreciably elongated hodographs and robust SRH coincident with
   outer bands of convection across/near the Peninsula. Even with a
   thick overcast per early day visible satellite imagery, diurnal
   heating influences will boost SB/MLCAPE within a moisture-rich
   environment, with a related uptick in updraft intensity expected
   through late morning into afternoon.

   The east-central Florida Peninsula including the Space Coast
   vicinity would appear to have the longest duration of
   tornado-favorable ingredients particularly this afternoon through
   evening. This will be as strengthening low-level winds coincide with
   the modifying remnant frontal zone across the region to result in a
   long duration of regionally maximized low-level SRH. While not
   overly common in tropical cyclone-related situations, a strong
   (EF2+) tornado could occur, particularly across the east-central
   Florida Peninsula.

   ..Guyer/Gleason.. 09/28/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z