Spring Hill, FL...Miami Beach, FL...Ocala, FL...Palm Valley, FL...Key West, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 281253
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes are expected across the central and southern Florida
Peninsula today in association with Hurricane Ian.
...Florida...
Major Hurricane Ian will continue to move slowly northeastward and
approach the southwest/west-central coast of Florida today.
Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest track,
intensity, and forecast details.
A north-northeastward translation of Ian-related eastern-peripheral
winds will continue to occur across the southern/central Peninsula,
with appreciably elongated hodographs and robust SRH coincident with
outer bands of convection across/near the Peninsula. Even with a
thick overcast per early day visible satellite imagery, diurnal
heating influences will boost SB/MLCAPE within a moisture-rich
environment, with a related uptick in updraft intensity expected
through late morning into afternoon.
The east-central Florida Peninsula including the Space Coast
vicinity would appear to have the longest duration of
tornado-favorable ingredients particularly this afternoon through
evening. This will be as strengthening low-level winds coincide with
the modifying remnant frontal zone across the region to result in a
long duration of regionally maximized low-level SRH. While not
overly common in tropical cyclone-related situations, a strong
(EF2+) tornado could occur, particularly across the east-central
Florida Peninsula.
..Guyer/Gleason.. 09/28/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
| 
)
