Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 011718
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Sat Jan 01 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado
or two are possible across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas on
Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A large-scale, positively tilted upper trough will move eastward
from the Great Plains into the eastern CONUS on Sunday. Multiple
shortwaves will be embedded within the large-scale upper trough,
with the strongest shortwave trough forecast to move quickly
eastward from the southern Plains into the Southeast/Carolinas. At
the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the
Southeast/Carolinas, with cyclogenesis possible somewhere along the
front as the primary shortwave trough approaches later in the
period.
...Carolinas into the Southeast...
Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and
magnitude of the severe thunderstorm threat on Sunday, but at least
locally damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado or two will be
possible across a broad area from the Carolinas into the Southeast.
A line of convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning along a
cold front, from somewhere near the Piedmont region into portions of
the Southeast. This convection is expected to gradually weaken with
time through the morning as large-scale ascent diminishes across the
region, but relatively strong flow in the lowest 1 km may support an
isolated damaging wind risk with the more intense convective
elements as the band moves eastward, especially in areas where
stronger heating can occur by late morning/early afternoon.
Some increase in the severe threat is possible later Sunday
afternoon into the evening, though this will be dependent on the
eastward progression of the front and the timing/location of
cyclogenesis along the boundary, which in turn will be partially
dependent on the evolution of convection Saturday night and during
the first part of the day on Sunday. For areas that remain in the
warm sector as the primary midlevel shortwave trough approaches
later in the period, rich low-level moisture, strong effective
shear, and increasing low-level flow will support some uptick in the
damaging wind and brief tornado threat with renewed convection,
though weak midlevel lapse rates will likely tend to limit updraft
intensity.
The greatest late afternoon/evening threat appears to be across
portions of southern GA/north FL, and perhaps the coastal Carolinas,
but uncertainty regarding the synoptic details remains too large to
include higher hazard probabilities at this time.
..Dean.. 01/01/2022
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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