Jan 4, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 4 05:23:34 UTC 2022 (20220104 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220104 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220104 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220104 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220104 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220104 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 040523

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1123 PM CST Mon Jan 03 2022

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms may occur over far eastern North Carolina on
   Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
   continental United States.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A large area of cyclonic flow aloft will remain over much of the
   central and eastern CONUS on Wednesday, with a leading shortwave
   trough moving from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Behind this
   feature, a low-amplitude wave will dive southeast across the Rockies
   and into the central Plains producing strong height falls.
   Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain along the West Coast.

   At the surface, stable conditions will exist over most of the CONUS,
   the exceptions being far eastern NC and southern FL. Weak moisture
   return will occur ahead of a cold front along the East Coast during
   the day, and MLCAPE on the order of 100-200 J/kg may affect the
   Outer Banks of NC. Forecast soundings indicate elevated parcels are
   most likely over land, with perhaps isolated cells around Cape
   Hatteras. Although deep-layer shear will exceed 40 kt, expected
   coverage of storms and weak instability currently preclude low
   severe probabilities.

   Elsewhere, dry air aloft and a subsidence inversion below 700
   suggest only shallow convection along or just off the eastern coast
   of FL.

   ..Jewell.. 01/04/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z