Jan 5, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 5 17:17:49 UTC 2022 (20220105 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220105 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220105 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220105 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220105 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220105 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 051717

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1117 AM CST Wed Jan 05 2022

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few weak thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of the
   Southeast.

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough will likely extend across the middle and lower MO
   Valley early Thursday morning, embedded within the broad cyclonic
   flow aloft covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. This
   shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day,
   traversing the Mid MS Valley and much of the OH Valley. Strong
   mid-flow (i.e. 100+ kt at 500 mb) will accompany this shortwave,
   spreading across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and Mid-Atlantic during
   the period. Dry and stable conditions will precede this shortwave
   and attendant jet streak, precluding thunderstorm development.

   Highest chance for thunderstorms appears to be ahead of a surface
   low along a remnant frontal zone extending from southeast TX
   northeastward through the Southeast. This low, which will likely be
   centered near the northern LA/west-central MS border early Thursday,
   is forecast to deepen slightly as it moves quickly northeastward
   throughout the day. Forcing for ascent in the vicinity of this low
   and its attendant cold front will likely lead to the development of
   a line of shallow convection Thursday afternoon across southern MS,
   central/southern AL, southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle. Guidance
   currently shows relatively warm temperatures aloft, keeping much of
   the buoyancy below the heights needs for lightning generation. A few
   lightning flashes are still possible as well as some convectively
   augmented downbursts. Very sparse coverage of any damaging wind
   gusts is currently anticipated, precluding the introduction of any
   severe probabilities with this outlook. A trend towards more
   buoyancy could result in the need for probabilities in later
   outlooks.

   ..Mosier.. 01/05/2022

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