Jan 6, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 6 17:23:11 UTC 2022 (20220106 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220106 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220106 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220106 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220106 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220106 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 061723

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1123 AM CST Thu Jan 06 2022

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A dry, continental air mass is forecast to be in place across much
   of the CONUS early Friday morning. The only exception will be across
   the central and southern FL peninsula, where the cold front is
   expected to make slow southward progress throughout the day. The
   relatively warm and moist air mass in place will contribute to 
   buoyancy ahead of the front, although warm temperatures aloft will
   keep this buoyancy modest. As a result, convection along the front
   may occasionally become deep enough to produce isolated lightning
   flashes.

   A shortwave trough is expected to move across the northern Rockies
   and into the northern/central Plains from Friday afternoon into
   early Saturday morning. As it does, lee troughing will deepen across
   the High Plains, strengthening the surface pressure gradient and
   supporting southerly surface winds across the central and southern
   Plains. Resultant moisture return will bring low 60s dewpoints and
   modest buoyancy to the TX Coast. A few lightning flashes are
   possible within any deeper, more persistent convective cores.

   ..Mosier.. 01/06/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z