Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 070527
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Thu Jan 06 2022
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible Saturday over parts of
southeast Texas. A brief/weak tornado may occur.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Moderate southwest flow aloft will exist over the central and
northern Plains in association with a leading positive-tilt upper
trough. Overnight, another upper trough will amplify over the far
northern Plains and upper MS Valley, absorbing the lead trough
Sunday morning near the Great Lakes.
At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the
eastern CONUS, centered over the Mid Atlantic. Increasing southerly
winds will lead to mid and upper 60s F dewpoints spreading north
behind a warm front over eastern TX during the day, possibly nearing
the ArkLaTex by Sunday morning. Forecast soundings reveal a narrow
corridor of uncapped SBCAPE by afternoon, with around 300 m2/s2 SRH
along and north of the warm front.
Elevated thunderstorms are likely during the day over northeast TX,
but any hail threat appears low end. Other storms are forecast to
form near a confluence line by evening across eastern TX, and these
storms would have access to SBCAPE. Most of the shear will be
concentrated in the low levels, suggesting a brief/weak tornado will
be possible with a slow-moving supercell.
..Jewell.. 01/07/2022
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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