SPC AC 080601

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1201 AM CST Sat Jan 08 2022

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE
   RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe storms will be possible on Sunday mainly over
   Louisiana, southern Mississippi and Alabama.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A deep upper low will exist over Hudson Bay on Sunday, with height
   falls extending south across the Great Lakes and Northeast.
   Meanwhile, a southern-stream jet will stretch from TX into the
   Southeast, with midlevel westerlies averaging around 40-50 kt.

   At the surface, a cold front will begin the day Sunday over Lower
   MI, the OH Valley, and northern TX, and will rapidly push
   southeastward through the period. By 12Z Monday, this front is
   forecast to be over southern GA, with offshore flow across the Gulf
   of Mexico and off the coastal Mid Atlantic. Ahead of the front, a
   plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will exist from eastern TX
   into southern LA Sunday morning, and this moisture will eventually
   spread northward with a warm front into central MS and AL.

   Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along
   and north of the cold front Sunday morning, and this may limit
   heating except over far southern LA and AL. Mixed-layer parcels will
   first become uncapped ahead of the front over eastern TX and LA,
   with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE also developing behind the warm front
   into MS and AL. Around 200 m2/s2 SRH is possible along the warm
   front, with higher values farther northeast into the cooler airmass.
   However, instability will be elevated across northern MS, AL and GA,
   with little severe threat there.

   Storms along the cold front over TX/LA will develop east/southeast
   through the period, with a diurnal boost in coverage across MS and
   AL by around 21Z. Low-level winds will become more westerly with
   time, and this will decrease effective SRH across the warm sector.
   Eventually, the cold front will undercut the convection. These
   considerations, as well as effective bulk shear of only 30 kt,
   suggest a marginal risk for severe storms. A brief tornado or two
   may occur, along with marginal hail (western areas) and a few strong
   gusts.

   ..Jewell.. 01/08/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z