Jan 8, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 8 17:25:46 UTC 2022 (20220108 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220108 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220108 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 125,327 10,459,623 Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220108 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 124,562 10,332,276 Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220108 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 125,327 10,459,623 Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220108 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 59,405 4,496,546 Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Lafayette, LA...Beaumont, TX...Lake Charles, LA...
   SPC AC 081725

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1125 AM CST Sat Jan 08 2022

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe storms will be possible Sunday, mainly over
   parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.

   ...Synopsis...
   Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to move eastward over much
   of the central/eastern CONUS on Sunday. The trailing, southern
   portion of the upper trough over the southern Plains and lower MS
   Valley should have more of a positive tilt. At the surface,
   low-level moisture will advance northward across parts of the lower
   MS Valley and Southeast through the day ahead of a cold front. This
   cold front is expected to sweep east-southeastward across these
   regions through the period.

   ...Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast...
   At least scattered storms should be ongoing at the start of the
   period Sunday morning over parts of the lower MS Valley/Mid-South
   along and near the cold front. This activity will largely be aided
   by low-level warm advection and should be mostly elevated. The
   northern extent of low to mid 60s surface dewpoints will probably
   delineate the potential for surface-based storms and any appreciable
   severe threat. Latest guidance is in reasonably good agreement that
   this greater low-level moisture will attempt to advance northward
   across parts of MS/AL/GA in tandem with a surface warm front through
   the day. The stronger low/mid-level flow associated with the upper
   trough is forecast to remain displaced generally to the north of the
   warm sector through the period. Still, there should be enough
   veering and strengthening of the wind profile with height through
   mid levels to support around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, and some
   storm organization.

   MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg along/south of the warm front appears
   sufficient for surface-based storms. A mix of loosely organized
   multicell clusters and marginal supercell structures may occur as
   storms develop eastward along/ahead of the cold front through Sunday
   evening. This activity should pose an isolated threat for mainly
   strong to damaging winds, although some marginally severe hail may
   also occur early in the convective life cycle across LA/MS. A
   tornado or two also appears possible, although the low-level flow is
   forecast to veer to a more southwesterly component and gradually
   weaken through the day. Regardless, around 100-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km
   SRH should be enough for occasional low-level rotation with any
   robust updraft that can remain at least semi-discrete.

   The severe threat should wane with eastward extent into GA by late
   Sunday evening, as the cold front outpaces the low-level moisture
   return. At this point, the overall severe threat still appears a bit
   too marginal/isolated to include greater severe probabilities for
   damaging winds or tornadoes. But, the Marginal Risk was expanded a
   bit northward/eastward across AL into GA and the western FL
   Panhandle to account for latest guidance showing some strong to
   severe storm potential farther east.

   ..Gleason.. 01/08/2022

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