Jan 9, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 9 17:00:29 UTC 2022 (20220109 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220109 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220109 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220109 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220109 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220109 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 091700

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1100 AM CST Sun Jan 09 2022

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Florida Peninsula on
   Monday, but organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the eastern CONUS
   will move slowly eastward on Monday, eventually shifting over the
   western Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will continue
   advancing southward across the FL Peninsula through the day. While
   mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints are forecast to be present ahead
   of the front, veering low-level winds should limit convergence along
   the front itself. A weak low-level inversion is also forecast to be
   present across this region, which should hamper the degree of
   instability that can develop. Still, isolated to scattered storms
   may develop through Monday afternoon/evening, especially across the
   central/southern FL Peninsula. Modest mid-level westerly winds
   should generally limit the amount of deep-layer shear present. While
   a storm capable of producing strong/gusty winds may occur, the lack
   of better shear suggests organized severe convection is unlikely.

   ..Gleason.. 01/09/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z