Jan 10, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 10 16:29:50 UTC 2022 (20220110 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220110 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220110 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220110 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220110 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220110 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 101629

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1029 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
   U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night.

   ...Synopsis...
   A reinforcing intrusion of cold/dry air has overspread much of the
   U.S. east of the Rockies.  The shallow leading edge of this airmass
   appears likely to advance through the remainder of the Florida
   Peninsula by 12Z Tuesday, as a significant short wave trough digs
   southeast of the upper Great Lakes region through much of the
   Northeast, before turning eastward off the New England coast.

   Although mid-level flow along the Atlantic Seaboard may then trend a
   bit more zonal and less confluent, cold surface ridging will be slow
   to lose influence across much of the Gulf and south Atlantic Coast
   region.  As larger-scale mid-level troughing once again amplifies
   upstream, across parts of the upper Great Lakes region through the
   middle and lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night (downstream
   of building ridging near the Pacific coast), generally dry and/or
   stable conditions are expected to be maintained.

   Across the West, a plume of moisture emanating from the subtropical
   Pacific is forecast to overspread portions of the Pacific Northwest,
   around the western periphery of the building ridge.  This may be
   accompanied by areas of precipitation and embedded convection, aided
   by forcing associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm advection. 
   However, due to warm layers aloft, the potential for any convection
   to produce lightning appears generally negligible.

   ...Southeast Florida Atlantic coastal areas...
   Models suggest that weak to modest boundary-layer destabilization is
   possible near coastal areas Tuesday, as the post-frontal
   boundary-layer remains relatively moist (surface dew points in the
   mid 60s F) beneath cooling mid-level temperatures.  In the presence
   of weak/ weakening mid-level inhibition, occasional widely scattered
   thunderstorms are possible where northeasterly low-level flow
   focuses convergence near or just east of the coast.  This may be
   aided by forcing for ascent associated with one or two weak
   perturbations within otherwise broadly cyclonic mid-level flow.

   ..Kerr.. 01/10/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z