Jan 12, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 12 05:39:27 UTC 2022 (20220112 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220112 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220112 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220112 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220112 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220112 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 120539

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1139 PM CST Tue Jan 11 2022

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated weak thunderstorms may occur during the early morning hours
   Thursday over parts of the Florida Peninsula.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A 100 kt midlevel speed max will dive southeastward across the mid
   MS Valley during the day, nosing into the Southeast by 00Z. By 12Z
   Friday, the associated upper trough will be near the coastal
   Carolinas, with strong northwest flow situated over GA and FL.
   Meanwhile, an upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten as a
   shortwave trough moves from the Pacific Northwest into the Great
   Basin.

   At the surface, northerly winds will exist over the Gulf of Mexico,
   and will increase over FL through the period. Dewpoints over FL will
   largely be in the 50s F during the day, which may support minimal
   instability. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
   across the FL Peninsula early in the day prior to rapid drying from
   the west during the afternoon. Weak instability as well as weak
   winds below 700 mb suggest non-severe thunderstorms are most likely.

   ..Jewell.. 01/12/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z