Jan 12, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 12 16:46:04 UTC 2022 (20220112 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220112 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220112 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220112 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220112 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220112 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 121646

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1046 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
   U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.

   ...Discussion...
   A vigorous short wave impulse emanating from the Canadian Arctic
   latitudes may contribute to the continued development of a deep 
   mid-level cyclone across southern Hudson and James Bays into
   northern Quebec during this period.  As this occurs, an associated
   anomalously cold Arctic air mass may slowly advance toward portions
   of the upper Great Lakes vicinity and St. Lawrence Valley.  However,
   much of the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night, will remain
   largely under the influence of a belt of amplified westerlies
   emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific.

   This will continue to include large-scale ridging across the eastern
   Pacific into the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains, with a
   pair of embedded short wave troughs progressing through, before
   digging to the lee of, the mean ridge axis.  Within larger-scale
   downstream troughing, an amplifying short wave trough is forecast to
   rapidly dig south-southeast of the Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley
   vicinity, and across the south Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z Friday. 
   This will be preceded by a more modest impulse accelerating east of
   the Florida Peninsula early in the period, which may contribute to
   significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone over the southwestern
   Atlantic.  Another baroclinic zone forming closer to the southern
   Mid Atlantic coast may also provide the focus for a developing low
   center.  

   Models vary concerning this evolution, but the more substantive
   impacts from this developing system, particularly in terms of
   precipitation, may remain largely confined to areas well offshore. 
   In its wake, substantive mid-level warming and lower/mid
   tropospheric drying should diminish any lingering risk for
   convective development near southeast Florida coastal areas, with
   generally dry and/or stable conditions prevailing across much of the
   remainder of the U.S.

   ..Kerr.. 01/12/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z