SPC AC 131703

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1103 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Friday
   through Friday night.

   ...Discussion...
   Broad, large-scale ridging appears likely to persist within the
   westerlies across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into the U.S
   Great Basin through this period.  However, models indicate that
   short wave ridging near its crest will become suppressed
   southeastward across the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S.
   Rockies, as an upstream short wave trough progresses inland across
   the British Columbia coast and Canadian Rockies.

   Downstream of the short wave ridging, it appears that a couple of
   digging short wave perturbations will gradually consolidate into
   larger-scale positively tilted troughing across the southern Great
   Plains into southern Rockies by late Friday night.  While models
   suggest that this will most prominently be accompanied by cold
   surface ridging surging southward to the lee of the Rockies, at
   least through this period, initially weak to modest surface
   cyclogenesis is forecast to commence across the Texas Panhandle into
   the Ark-La-Tex vicinity by 12Z Saturday.  This should be accompanied
   by the development of a southerly return flow across the northwest
   Gulf coast into portions of the southeastern Great Plains and lower
   Mississippi Valley Friday night.  However, in the wake of a
   significant mid-level trough accelerating east of the Atlantic
   Seaboard, accompanied by strong offshore cyclogenesis, an initially
   (relatively) dry boundary layer over the Gulf of Mexico will be slow
   to modify.  This will limit low to mid-level moistening and
   associated destabilization inland of coastal areas.

   Forecast soundings do suggest that weak CAPE may develop in a
   corridor near the Oklahoma/Arkansas border area by late Friday
   night, as fairly strong mid-level cooling (associated with a 500 mb
   cold core near or below -25 C) overspreads a tongue of relatively
   warm air aloft (along inverted surface troughing to the north of the
   surface low).  However, this is mostly rooted within mid-level
   layers above the freezing level, and the extent to which this
   environment might become conducive to the development of lightning
   remains a bit unclear, but still seems low.

   Otherwise, as the strong mid-level cooling overspreads the southern
   Rockies during the day Friday, weak convection capable of producing
   a few lightning flashes may also not be entirely out of the question
   across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains vicinity of Colorado into New
   Mexico. However, probabilities, in general, still appear less than
   10 percent.

   ..Kerr.. 01/13/2022

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