SPC AC 140645

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1245 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY
   NIGHT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to marginally severe storms may affect parts of the
   Florida Panhandle and western Florida Peninsula Saturday night into
   early Sunday morning. Occasional damaging winds and perhaps a brief
   tornado or two should be the main threats.

   ...Southeast...
   An upper trough/low located over the central/southern Plains
   Saturday morning will advance towards the lower MS Valley through
   the day, eventually reaching the central Gulf Coast states by late
   Saturday night into early Sunday morning. A related surface low
   should likewise develop from LA/MS to the vicinity of the FL
   Panhandle by the end of the period. A prior frontal passage has
   shunted rich low-level moisture well south into the Gulf of Mexico.
   It remains questionable how much low-level moisture will be able to
   return northward towards the central Gulf Coast through Saturday
   night ahead of the surface low and its attendant cold front. Latest
   guidance suggests that low 60s surface dewpoints may struggle to
   reach very far inland across the FL Panhandle and the Gulf Coast of
   the FL Peninsula through 12Z Sunday morning, with only mid to
   perhaps upper 50s surface dewpoints farther north into parts of
   central MS just ahead of the surface low. Related instability should
   be rather weak, with MLCAPE likely remaining less than 500 J/kg, and
   perhaps even below 250 J/kg. The potential for surface-based storms
   across southern LA into southern/central MS through Saturday
   afternoon is too uncertain to include even low severe probabilities,
   as poor lapse rates and a remnant inversion aloft should temper
   updraft intensity across this area. 

   Even with the limited instability, both low-level and deep-layer
   shear are forecast to be fairly strong over the central Gulf Coast
   region, especially as a southerly low-level jet quickly strengthens
   Saturday night in tandem with an approaching mid-level jet. Isolated
   strong to perhaps marginally severe storms may move slightly inland
   from the northern Gulf of Mexico across parts of the FL Panhandle,
   mainly after 00Z. Given the strength of the low-level flow,
   occasional damaging winds may occur even with minimal instability. A
   veering and strengthening wind profile with height through the
   boundary layer should support updraft rotation with any storm that
   can become surface based. A tornado or two may also occur given this
   favorable low-level shear. The lack of stronger forecast instability
   precludes any more than low severe probabilities. These storms
   should approach the western FL Peninsula by the end of the Day 2
   period, and they may continue to pose an isolated severe threat as
   low-level moisture return remains barely adequate for surface-based
   convection.

   ..Gleason.. 01/14/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z