SPC AC 141723

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1123 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
   ACROSS NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA GULF COASTAL AREAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong thunderstorm development is possible across parts
   of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico Saturday night.  One or two of
   these storms might impact the coastal waters from the Florida
   Panhandle into areas north of Tampa, and pose some risk for severe
   weather along coastal areas before weakening while spreading inland.

   ...Synopsis...
   Large-scale mid-level ridging appears likely to persist within the
   westerlies across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into the Canadian
   Rockies and U.S. Great Basin.  Some amplification of short wave
   ridging is forecast through this period near its crest, along the
   British Columbia coast vicinity, in the wake of one short wave
   impulse digging southeast of the Canadian Rockies, and ahead of
   another accelerating northeastward across the northeastern Pacific.

   Farther downstream, a much more prominent short wave trough is
   forecast to continue digging to the lee of the ridging, southeast of
   the southern Great Plains.  As it reaches the lower Mississippi
   Valley and northwestern Gulf coast region, it may gradually come in
   phase with low amplitude troughing within a weak belt of westerlies
   emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, then turn eastward
   toward the south Atlantic coast region late Saturday night into
   Sunday.

   There has been considerable lower/mid tropospheric drying across
   much of the Gulf Basin in the wake of a vigorous preceding mid-level
   trough, now accelerating eastward away from the south Atlantic
   coast.  The remnants of a trailing frontal zone linger south of the
   Florida Peninsula, through the central Gulf of Mexico, into upper
   Texas coastal areas and the southeastern Great Plains.  And it
   appears that the intersection of this boundary and another cold
   front surging into the southern Great Plains by this evening will
   become the focus for a developing surface low.

   Models continue to suggest that surface cyclogenesis will be modest
   to weak initially.  However, as the low occludes across the lower
   Mississippi Valley and adjacent Gulf coast vicinity late Saturday
   into Saturday night, secondary frontal wave development across the
   eastern Gulf coast vicinity may be stronger.  Late Saturday evening
   into early Sunday, this probably will including strengthening
   south-southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric wind fields (in excess of
   50 kt around 850 mb) and enlarging hodographs within the developing
   warm sector.

   ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast...
   Substantive, deep boundary-layer moistening across the Gulf of
   Mexico still appears unlikely in advance of the developing cyclone. 
   The more appreciable moistening, including surface dew points in the
   lower/mid 60s F, may remain confined to a relatively shallow layer
   over the northern Gulf of Mexico.  

   Moistening within the warm sector of the initial surface low, across
   southeastern Louisiana coastal areas into southern Mississippi will
   be more limited.  As the mid-level cold core also lags to the
   northwest of the southeastward surging cold front, pre-frontal
   destabilization near/east of the lower Mississippi Valley during the
   day appears likely to remain very weak.  Southeast of the exit
   region of the mid-level jet overspreading Arkansas, northern
   Mississippi and western Tennessee, it remains unclear whether
   convective development will become capable of producing lightning. 
   Coupled with modest to weak low-level wind fields and shear, severe
   weather potential currently appears negligible through the day
   Saturday across the central Gulf Coast states.

   Modest boundary-layer moistening and relatively warm mid-level
   temperatures may continue to remain problematic as the warm sector
   attempts to spread inland across northwestern Florida Gulf coastal
   areas Saturday night, in association with the stronger secondary
   surface wave.  However, given the forecast strengthening of the
   low-level wind fields, and enlargement of clockwise-curved low-level
   hodographs, there appears at least conditional potential for
   isolated to widely scattered supercell development in coastal
   waters, which could spread onshore and pose some severe weather risk
   before weakening.

   ..Kerr.. 01/14/2022

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