Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 160546
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
on Monday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough will be in place over much of the eastern
CONUS Monday morning. An embedded mid-level low initially centered
over the Mid-Atlantic will move generally northward across the
Northeast through the day. At the surface, a cold front is forecast
to have moved well offshore of the East Coast, with meager low-level
moisture present in its wake over land. This lack of low-level
moisture and negligible instability is expected to inhibit
convective potential through the period across the CONUS.
A possible exception may be over parts of eastern MA (Cape Cod and
Nantucket vicinity) for the first few hours of the period Monday
morning. A very strong east-southeasterly low-level jet (75-80+ kt)
will likely be in place over southern New England in this time
frame, and pronounced warm/moist advection at low levels should
support widespread precipitation. Regardless, MUCAPE from nearly all
guidance is forecast to remain below 100 J/kg. This suggests any
lightning flashes across this region should be sparse, and below the
10% coverage threshold needed for a general thunderstorm area.
..Gleason.. 01/16/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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