Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 161715
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
on Monday.
...Synopsis...
Upper troughing will be in place over the eastern CONUS early
Monday, with one embedded shortwave centered over the northern
Mid-Atlantic and another farther southwest over the TN Valley. The
lead shortwave is forecast to progress northward across the
Northeast into Quebec while the other shortwave tracks more eastward
off the Carolina coast. Farther west, upper ridging in place Monday
morning from the Southwest into the Great Basin is expected to
dampen as a weakening upper low moves into southern CA. This pattern
evolution is forecast to result in a less amplified, predominantly
zonal mid to upper flow across most of the CONUS by early Tuesday.
Moderately strong upper flow will still be in place east of the MS
River while with weaker flow across the West.
A dry and continental post-frontal air mass will be in place east of
the Rockies, precluding the buoyancy needed for thunderstorms. The
only exception is during the early morning over Cape Cod where
limited elevated buoyancy may develop. Even so, the expectation is
for most of the buoyancy to remain offshore, keeping the
thunderstorm coverage less than 10 percent over land areas. Cool and
stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over the western
CONUS.
..Mosier.. 01/16/2022
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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