Jan 17, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 17 17:04:59 UTC 2022 (20220117 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220117 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220117 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220117 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220117 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220117 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 171704

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1104 AM CST Mon Jan 17 2022

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
   on Tuesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   The overall upper pattern is forecast to trend gradually more
   cyclonic on Tuesday as one upper trough progresses northeastward
   into the western North Atlantic and a pair of shortwaves follow in
   its wake. Northernmost of this pair of shortwaves is expected to
   progress within the northern stream from the Canadian Prairie
   Provinces southeastward into the Upper Midwest and adjacent
   northwestern Ontario. Southernmost of this pair of shortwave will
   likely move from its early period position over southern CA eastward
   across the Southwest. By early Wednesday, broadly cyclonic upper
   flow will cover the CONUS, with a belt of stronger flow within the
   northern stream from the northern Rockies into the Northeast.

   Dry and stable conditions are expected to be in place across the
   CONUS early Tuesday. Surface ridging will be slow to progress
   eastward across the Southeast, keeping conditions stable across the
   region for the entire period. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated
   over the TX Panhandle ahead of the approaching southern-stream
   shortwave trough. Strengthening surface pressure gradient and mass
   response will encourage the northward return of modified low-level
   moisture across central and east TX Tuesday afternoon through
   Wednesday morning. Even so, warm mid-levels are forecast to keep
   conditions stable, precluding thunderstorm development. 

   Elsewhere, cold mid-level temperatures within the shortwave trough
   could result in a flash or two possible across AZ, but coverage will
   be less than 10 percent. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere.

   ..Mosier.. 01/17/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z