Jan 19, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 19 05:52:29 UTC 2022 (20220119 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220119 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220119 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220119 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220119 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220119 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 190552

   Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1152 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
   States on Thursday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A large-scale, positively tilted upper trough should develop slowly
   from the central to eastern CONUS on Thursday. At the surface, a
   large area of high pressure will be present over much of the Plains
   and MS Valley, with a cold front located across parts of the central
   Gulf Coast states. With the exception of southern AL and the FL
   Panhandle vicinity, this front should move offshore fairly quickly
   Thursday morning. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will probably
   be ongoing at the start of the period along/near the front over
   portions of LA/MS/AL. This activity should move generally
   east-southeastward in tandem with the front through the day.

   Although modest low-level moisture should be present ahead of the
   front very near the coast of AL and the FL Panhandle, instability is
   forecast to remain quite weak owing to modest diurnal heating and
   poor lapse rates. Weak low-level convergence along the front and a
   large component of front-parallel flow aloft should also hamper
   overall thunderstorm coverage. Due to these limiting factors, the
   potential for even strong convection currently appears low across
   this region before the front clears the coast by late Thursday
   afternoon.

   Otherwise, low-level moisture is expected to gradually return
   northward across parts of southern/central FL through the period.
   Isolated thunderstorms may occur across this area, mainly near the
   coast, as this process occurs.

   ..Gleason.. 01/19/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z