Jan 19, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 19 16:58:07 UTC 2022 (20220119 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220119 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220119 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220119 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220119 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220119 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 191658

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1058 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
   States on Thursday.

   ...Synopsis...

   A large-scale upper trough from the Great Lakes to the southern
   Rockies will slowly pivot eastward across the Plains and Midwest on
   Thursday. Neutral to weak height falls will occur over the southern
   U.S., while a weak surface low tracks eastward along the central
   Gulf Coast vicinity. A cold front will shift east along with the
   surface low. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will allow for modest
   moisture return along the FL Panhandle into far southern AL/GA.
   However, weak diurnal heating due to abundant cloud cover and
   ongoing showers/isolated thunderstorms will limit destabilization,
   with only a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE forecast near the Gulf Coast.
   In the absence of stronger height falls and cooling aloft, midlevel
   lapse rates also will remain poor. Additionally, organized
   convection will be further limited by weak convergence along the
   front, with deep-layer boundary-parallel flow in place. While
   isolated thunderstorms are expected, severe thunderstorm potential
   will remain low.

   ..Leitman.. 01/19/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z