Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 200630
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across
parts of the southern Florida Peninsula. Occasional damaging wind
gusts and marginally severe hail appear possible.
...Synopsis...
A positively tilted upper trough centered over the OH/MS Valleys
Friday morning will move across the eastern states through the
period. At the surface, a cold front should develop southward over
the northern/central FL Peninsula by Friday evening. Guidance is in
better agreement that rich low-level moisture to the south of this
front will likely remain confined to parts of south FL and the Keys.
...Florida Peninsula...
Generally mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints across south FL and
diurnal heating should support around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by
late Friday afternoon. Although low-level winds are expected to
remain fairly weak, mid-level southwesterly flow should gradually
increase through the day as the upper trough moves across the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. About 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will
conditionally support organized updrafts.
The primary uncertainty continues to be nebulous forcing and overall
thunderstorm coverage. The more pronounced large-scale ascent
associated with the upper trough is forecast to remain well to the
north of the FL Peninsula. This leaves weak low-level convergence
along the front itself, and along sea breezes on both coasts, as the
only notable mechanisms to help initiate convection across south FL.
If storms can form in this environment, then they could become
strong to marginally severe given sufficient instability and
effective bulk shear for marginal supercells and/or multicells.
Mid-level lapse rates should remain fairly poor, but seasonably cool
500 mb temperatures around -10 to -11 C may support an isolated
threat for marginally severe hail. Occasional damaging winds may
also occur with any convective downdrafts.
Have adjusted the Marginal Risk for hail/wind southward a bit to
include mainly the southern FL Peninsula based on the general
consensus in latest guidance showing the position of the cold front
and location of greater low-level moisture farther south. At this
point, it looks like the best chance for thunderstorms may be along
the Atlantic Coast sea breeze Friday afternoon, but even this
potential appears uncertain.
..Gleason.. 01/20/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
| 
)
