Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 201720
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across
parts of the southern Florida Peninsula. Occasional damaging wind
gusts and marginally severe hail appear possible.
...South Florida...
A positively tilted upper trough from the lower Great Lakes to south
TX will pivot east/northeast through the period. Neutral to small
height falls are expected over the Florida Peninsula, with stronger
forcing for ascent remaining well north of the area. At the surface,
a cold front will slowly progress south across central FL through
Friday afternoon, becoming positioned across far south FL by 12z
Saturday. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s will reside ahead of the
front, though heating will be somewhat limited by cloud cover and
showers. Midlevel cooling also is expected to be weak, and midlevel
lapse rates around 6.5-7 C/km are common in forecast soundings. As a
result, destabilization will be modest, with less than 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE forecast.
Low-level shear will remain weak, with poor frontal convergence.
However, southwesterly midlevel flow may increase modestly during
the afternoon and effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt are
possible. Most forecast guidance indicates a pre-frontal cluster of
thunderstorms developing mainly south of Lake Okeechobee during the
afternoon. Some locally strong gusts will be possible if any better
organized clusters develop. Additionally, rather straight, elongated
forecast hodographs above 2 km are evident and combined with modest
lapse rates could support marginally severe hail in any better
organized/longer-lived cells.
..Leitman.. 01/20/2022
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