Jan 21, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 21 06:29:35 UTC 2022 (20220121 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220121 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220121 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220121 0700 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220121 0700 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220121 0700 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 210629

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 AM CST Fri Jan 21 2022

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and
   the Keys on Saturday, but severe thunderstorms currently appear
   unlikely.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A series of shortwave troughs are forecast to progress through
   northern stream, reinforcing and deepening the upper troughing
   across much of the northeastern CONUS. Within the southern stream, a
   shortwave trough initially over the MS Delta region will move
   eastward over the central Gulf region and across the FL
   Panhandle/northern FL. Father west, an upper low centered over the
   Lower CO River Valley will remain largely in place, with only modest
   southward motion anticipated.

   Relatively progressive upper pattern will help maintain a dry,
   continental air mass across the majority of the CONUS. The only
   exception is south of a weak front across central and southern FL.
   In this region, low to mid 60s dewpoints amid afternoon temperatures
   in the 70s may result in enough buoyancy for a few isolated
   lightning flashes. Strong mid-level flow will be in place over the
   region, supporting moderate bulk shear. However, low-level flow will
   be weak and buoyancy will be limited, tempering the overall severe
   potential and keeping the severe storm probability very low.

   ..Mosier.. 01/21/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z