Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 211704
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Fri Jan 21 2022
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of south Florida and
the Keys on Saturday, but severe thunderstorms currently appear
unlikely.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the Midwest will deepen and spread eastward
across the eastern U.S. while an upper low persists over the lower
Colorado Valley and southwestern states. A weak mid/upper shortwave
trough will progress eastward across the northern Gulf Coast
vicinity and into northern FL by Sunday morning. This will result in
some modestly increasing southwesterly flow across the FL Peninsula
during the forecast period. At the surface, a cold front will become
somewhat diffuse in the vicinity of far south FL and the FL Keys.
While mid-60s F surface dewpoints will be in place, poor lapse rates
and limited diurnal heating will result in weak instability (less
than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Weak low-level winds will result in poor
convergence, but some modest forcing may overspread the area as the
central Gulf Coast shortwave progresses eastward. This could support
a few thunderstorms along the southeast FL coast into the FL Keys,
but severe potential will remain low.
..Leitman.. 01/21/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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