Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 220638
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Arizona and
southwest New Mexico on Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not
expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Deep cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to cover much of the central
and eastern CONUS early Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough is
expected to progress from the Lower OH Valley eastward through the
central Appalachians and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast during the
period. This progression will result in some dampening of the upper
troughing across the eastern CONUS, with a more zonal pattern
expected over the region by early Monday.
Farther west, a southern-stream upper low will likely begin the
period centered over the northern Gulf of California/southwest AZ.
Cool mid-level temperatures will accompany this low, with recent
guidance indicating 500-mb temperatures around -24 to -26 deg C.
Expectation is for this low to progress eastward across the
Southwest/northern Mexico, reaching Far West TX by early Monday. A
few lighting flashes are possible during the afternoon across
southeast AZ/southwest NM amid buoyancy generated by the cold
mid-level temperatures and moistening low levels (i.e. around 700
mb).
Strong ascent will spread into west TX and Rio Grande Valley Sunday
night into early Monday morning, but displacement south and east of
the colder mid-level temperatures should limit buoyancy. This
limited buoyancy is currently expected to keep thunderstorm coverage
under 10 percent.
..Mosier.. 01/22/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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