Jan 22, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 22 17:16:59 UTC 2022 (20220122 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220122 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220122 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220122 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220122 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220122 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 221717

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1117 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible across southeast Arizona
   and southwest New Mexico on Sunday.

   ...Synopsis...
   On Sunday, a dry air mass will cover most of the CONUS with a high
   over the Pacific Northwest and a surface ridge from the upper MS
   Valley into TX. This will maintain dry offshore flow across the Gulf
   of Mexico and western Atlantic. 

   During the day, a deep upper low will move east across far southern
   AZ and NM, reaching the southern High Plains by 12Z Monday. Although
   absolute moisture levels will be low, very cold air aloft combined
   with daytime heating may yield sufficient instability to support
   isolated convection, mainly over the higher terrain over southeast
   AZ, the eastern Mogollon Rim and into western NM. While elevated
   moisture around 700 mb may develop farther east across NM and west
   TX overnight, thunderstorm chances appear low.

   ..Jewell.. 01/22/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z