SPC AC 231702

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1102 AM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into
   western Louisiana beginning late on Monday.

   ...Synopsis...
   An extensive area of cyclonic flow aloft will remain over much of
   the central and eastern CONUS on Monday, with the primary upper low
   over Hudson Bay. Meanwhile, a southern-stream shortwave trough will
   move eastward across TX during the day, losing amplitude as it
   approaches the lower MS Valley by 12Z Tuesday.

   At the surface, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will shift
   east toward FL, allowing minimal low-level moisture return with 60s
   F dewpoints nosing north toward the TX Coast. Southerly winds ahead
   of the shortwave trough will aid elevated moisture return, and lift
   from warm advection will result in widespread clouds and rain from
   east TX during the day across the northern Gulf Coast through
   Tuesday morning. Forecast soundings show minimal elevated
   instability with buoyancy maximized in the 700-500 mb layer, and
   this may support a few lightning flashes as precipitation expands
   from the upper TX Coast across southwest LA. Given such weak
   elevated instability, hail is unlikely and thus severe weather is
   not expected.

   ..Jewell.. 01/23/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z